Supply and Demand:real estate market
June 28th, 2009 by admin
Have you ever considered what it really is that can explain the changes in property prices? In this article, I will go throught the main causes for the property prices´ shifts. I am writing from many years of experience as a Toronto realtor.
How the next price move can be predicted? How does one know it is the right time to invest? What almost all buyers do is they simply watch for the previous direction of prices. One may say that the expectations of buyers, in fact, get mostly influenced by previous movements. Should prices go up, they will expect such growth to go on, and visa versa. Eventhough such a strategy does not consider the real factors that have an impact on the price, it is applied. Relying on this method alone can produce very painful experiences, just as we saw not too long ago.
What economic factors have the most significant effect on how prices are formed?
– Economic growth
– Nominal interest rates (before inflation) and structure of mortgage products
– Inflation
Let’s look at these factors in more detail.
The stronger the state of economics, the better it is for business including real estate. One of the reasons is that when economics is stronger it raises property prices because the buyer gets reassured that there will be a rise in the demand for housing, and a rise in the value of his property which will enable him to sell it again for a profit. When considering the BIS Quartely Review, it shows that a 1% rise of GNP is linked with 1% to 4% rise of property price after 3 years.
For the property prices to grow you firstly need plenty of eager buyers. As a result of the fact that many people can not buy a property without some sort of house lone, almost all buyers are eager to instead buy houses when there are attractive mortgage products with low nominal interest rates. According to the same source, only 1% decrease in nominal interest rate are connected with 1/2% to 1% of property prices growth after 1 year. Similarly, buyers get easily influenced by the smallest rise in the nominal interest rate which in reaction causes a settling of property prices. Watch out – no rule works strictly. For example – credit crunch is a situation, when official interest rates become less important and the loan market is driven by different factors. Likewise is the real estate market.
Property prices are strongly impacted by the rate of interest while changes in interest rates are influced by inflation. High inflation has a different impact in different countries. Some countries see investing into property as balancing inflation in which case higher inflation will result in an increase of property prices (for instance Germany). A typical characteristic of these type of countries is the fixed interest rate loans without any equity withdrawal. Some countries see the negative impact of high inflation on property prices such as in UK where the interest rates float and in the USA that has interest rates with equity withdrawal.
Every rule has an exception and numbers and values mentioned don’t have to suit your neighborhood. It’s realtor’s job to know the exceptions and differences. But you should understand, there is a general system how the real estate prices are created on the market. Do not be trapped by shallow attitude. Think about each aspect of the market.
