When will this recession be over?

They talk about the green shoots of recovery; well I have not seen any, have you? I personally think that it is a form of increase confidence trick; an attempt to make people believe that the worst of this current recession is over; I work within the cost reduction specialists sector and things are still quite tough here.

They, and when I say they I am talking about the Government and business leaders, are no doubt hoping that this new confidence (false as it undoubtedly is) will spur people on to start spending money again; to start buying houses etc. Until these so called “leaders” realise that this crisis will only start to ease when the banks and building societies start to lend money again, the better. Already we hear stories of the bankers going back to their bonus culture, will they never learn? The bigger question is why are the Government allowing them to make the same mistakes again when we, the taxpayer, are the major shareholder? There is a real lack of leadership at the moment and it is about time somebody at the top started to crack the whip.

Now I am not some financial whizz kid who thinks he has all of the answers. I am in fact just an average working class guy from the UK who works for a company that offers advice about becoming a foster parent and who also has a partnership in a company that offers affordable front doors. I do however watch and listen in amazement at times when I see what some of the politicians and greedy bankers say – they really are not in the real world – they probably would have absolutely no idea as to the average cost of a pint of milk or loaf of broad – they are complete jokers and a waste of space.

I personally believe that this current credit crisis will last until the end of 2010, at least. I know that this seem rather negative but it is just my opinion on the situation. With a stronger leadership this would no doubt change but while the Labour cronies continue to bicker and squabble what chance have we got? Bring in Vince Cable I say as the new Labour leader!

It might be all of the financial troubles here in the UK. Even more folks are searching for a second home that they can use for cheaper vacations or to let out during the rest of the unused year. A lot of people have indeed managed to escape the UK and jet off to sunnier climates by buying overseas property.

Choosing to follow this route is becoming even easier, no matter what age group you are, you can still buy new property or even move abroad, however, whatever you do, you will still need to protect your new investment. Finding a company that will give cost effective cover for second home insurance and overseas property insurance isn’t as easy and can often be more costly than you might imagine.

Searching for second home insurance that suits your needs can be an expensive and tiring chore. That’s due to the fact that these second homes could be left unoccupied for extended periods, especially during winter with the associated risks of burst pipes and freezing damage. Even if you are able to overcome those problems, it can still become stressful when the property is damaged by the current occupiers.

If you do obtain cover you will probably find that most holiday home or buy to let insurance policies have restrictions in the small print. Unless you comply absolutely to the letter with security and occupancy requirements, you may be shocked to find your insurance is invalid when you make a claim. Although they may be hard to find, there are some providers out there that understand that as it is a second home, it won’t be occupied all year round.  

Because of this reason, there are some policies available that won’t end up leaving you with no water or electricity as they have no restrictions or exclusions in the small print. In the end, if you do decide to rent out your new property, those policies also come with extra things like protection against your content if it is damaged by the current guests.

It has been over a year now since the sub-prime mortgage crisis started to take effect on the global economy. As uncertainty spread with regard to returns on loans and mortgages, lenders tightened their lending criteria – which led to the current situation in which mortgages are in (relatively) short supply and house prices are falling rapidly.

It’s near impossible to predict exactly when the mortgage market is likely to recover, but most economists agree on what will trigger a recovery.

What is happening now?

At present, the mortgage market is slow compared with previous years, although it is by no means stagnant. £5.5bn of mortgages were offered in November 2008 – suggesting that lenders are cautious, rather than ruling out mortgage lending altogether.

The main difference between now and the peak of the mortgage market in 2007 is lenders’ ability to offer mortgages. Not only are mortgage lenders more cautious than they used to be, but the capital required to provide loans and mortgages have become significantly expensive.

The main indicator of this is LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate). The LIBOR rate is a measure of the average rate at which banks lend to each other. In recent months, LIBOR has remained relatively high in relation to the Bank of England’s base rate, meaning that despite the Bank of England’s efforts to encourage higher levels of lending in the form of base rate cuts, the cost of lending has been slow to fall.

What could trigger a mortgage market recovery?

The Government have since introduced measures to encourage increased levels of lending, most notably pumping billions of pounds into banks in order to improve their ability to lend. This in itself has not yet caused a measurable increase in lending, but it’s quite possible that it will aid banks as confidence increases amongst lenders.

The main factor affecting availability of mortgages is lending between banks. If lending becomes cheaper for the financial institutions themselves, lenders will be in a better position to offer mortgages and loans more freely.

However, it is unlikely that mortgage lending will return to anywhere near the levels seen at the peak of the market. Even when lending returns to healthy levels, lenders are likely to be more cautious about the credit history of borrowers, as well as deposits put down on new mortgages.